Evidence Hub Pearson’s Night Flight “Restriction” Formula Exhibit B – 2025 Night Operations vs. Published Budget

Exhibit B – 2025 Night Operations vs. Published Budget

What this exhibit shows

This exhibit compares Pearson’s published night movement budget for 2025 with the actual number of night movements observed using publicly verifiable data (ADS-B, ATIS, and noise-monitor records). It highlights the gap between what is presented as a “restricted” system and the real volume of night activity over impacted communities.

The purpose is to answer a simple question: How many night flights actually occurred in 2025, and how does that compare to the official “budget”? This exhibit does not rely on internal GTAA data; it uses replicable, community-verifiable methods.

Related analysis: For a full explanation of how the budget itself is structured, see Exhibit A – Night Flight Budget Formula and the main analysis page Pearson’s Night Flight “Restriction” Formula .

1. Definitions Used in This Exhibit

For consistency and transparency, this exhibit uses clear, public definitions:

  • Night period (local time): 23:00–07:00 (11 PM–7 AM), matching the sleep-opportunity window used on the Night Flight Formula page.
  • Night movement: Any arrival or departure whose takeoff or landing time falls within 23:00–07:00 local time.
  • Budgeted night movement: A night movement counted under GTAA’s annual night movement budget (as presented to the public).
  • Exempt night movement: A night movement that occurs but is not counted toward the budget (e.g., certain delay-related, cargo, ferry, or repositioning flights, depending on the category).

2. Data Sources and Methodology (Plain Language)

2.1. Data sources

  • ADS-B / radar data: Publicly observable flight tracking for CYYZ in 2025.
  • ATIS recordings and transcripts: Night runway configuration and operational context.
  • Acacia Park noise monitor: Time-stamped noise events for an exposed community under a major nighttime path.
  • GTAA public reporting: Any published statements on the 2025 night budget and night-movement counts.

2.2. Counting method

For each day of 2025:

  • Identify all arrivals and departures between 23:00 and 07:00.
  • Classify movements as arrival or departure.
  • Log runway, airline, aircraft type, and any available cause of delay (if applicable).
  • Where possible, flag movements that match GTAA’s exempt categories.

The resulting counts are then aggregated by month, and compared to:

  • GTAA’s publicly stated night budget for 2025 (as available by month/year).
  • Any GTAA claims of “compliance with the night movement budget” for 2025.

Note: This series uses a deliberately conservative methodology. Where classification is uncertain, movements are left in the total column and not treated as “exempt” by default.

3. 2025 Night Movements vs. Published Budget — Summary

The table below provides a high-level summary of night movements in 2025 compared with GTAA’s published budget. Detailed monthly breakdowns follow in Section 4.

Metric (2025) Value (2025) Notes
Published annual night-movement budget Pending (analysis in progress) Reported or inferred from GTAA night-flight program materials.
Total observed night movements (23:00–07:00) Pending (analysis in progress) All arrivals + departures, regardless of exemption status.
Observed “budget-counted” movements (approx.) Pending (analysis in progress) Estimated by removing clearly exempt / emergency categories from total observed movements (conservative estimate).
Estimated exempt / uncounted movements Pending (analysis in progress) Portion of actual movements not counted toward the budget but still flown over communities.
Compliance status (GTAA) Pending (GTAA 2025 statement, if any) GTAA’s own statement on whether the 2025 night budget was respected.
Status update — January 8, 2026

A formal request for GTAA’s official 2025 night-movement budget, definitions, and aggregate counts was sent on January 8, 2026. GTAA’s response (or non-response) will be added to this exhibit when received.

4. Monthly Night Movements — 2025 Detail

Status — January 8, 2026

The framework for monthly night-movement reporting is published below. Numerical values will be populated progressively as the 2025 ADS-B / ATIS analysis is completed and GTAA’s official aggregate figures (if provided) are incorporated.

Month (2025) Published night budget Observed night movements (all) Estimated “budget-counted” movements Estimated exempt / uncounted movements GTAA compliance claim
January Pending Pending Pending Pending Pending
February Pending Pending Pending Pending Pending
March Pending Pending Pending Pending Pending
April Pending Pending Pending Pending Pending
May Pending Pending Pending Pending Pending
June Pending Pending Pending Pending Pending
July Pending Pending Pending Pending Pending
August Pending Pending Pending Pending Pending
September Pending Pending Pending Pending Pending
October Pending Pending Pending Pending Pending
November Pending Pending Pending Pending Pending
December Pending Pending Pending Pending Pending

Status: Numerical values in the tables above will be populated once the 2025 night-movement dataset is finalized. The structure and definitions are published now so that the methodology is transparent in advance.

As you fill this table, you will be able to point to specific months where:

  • Total night movements approach or exceed the published budget.
  • Exempt / uncounted movements form a large share of total activity.
  • GTAA still publicly reports “compliance” with the night budget.

5. Relationship to the Community Experience (Acacia Park & Other Monitors)

The night-movement counts in this exhibit can be cross-checked against real noise exposure at ground level, using:

When night-movement peaks in this exhibit align with clusters of night-time noise events in the registry, it becomes difficult for GTAA to argue that night flights are “rare” or “tightly restricted”.

Source: Time-stamped noise events from the Acacia Park monitor, cross-referenced with nighttime ADS-B flight tracks and ATIS runway configurations. See Exhibit C – Acacia Park Night Noise Levels and Exhibit D – ATIS Night Runway Use .

6. How Investigators and Journalists Can Use This Exhibit

  • Cross-check “compliance” claims: If GTAA claims compliance with the night budget for 2025, this exhibit allows you to ask, “Compliance with what, exactly?”
  • Quantify exempt traffic: The estimated volume of exempt movements provides a lower bound on the unreported burden borne by communities.
  • Link numbers to health risk: Once filled, this table can be used alongside WHO night-noise guidance to show that “budget compliance” does not equal health protection.

Methodology note: This exhibit is intentionally transparent and replicable. Any investigator with access to ADS-B archives, ATIS recordings, and clear night-time definitions can either reproduce the counts or check them against their own independent dataset.


Pearson Accountability Alliance

Independent Environmental & Public Health Research for Toronto Pearson Communities.